The Erbil Edition
On Iran, negotiations, and Kurdistan
Colin here. The international press has been wall-to-wall on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rightfully so. But it is also interesting to see what moves other nation-states are making when the world is so distracted. On March 13th, Iran hammered Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, with 12 cruise missiles. According to the FT:
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have claimed responsibility for Sunday’s missile attack on what the elite force said was an Israeli intelligence centre in northern Iraq, adding to tensions in the region as world powers seek to revive stalled talks with Tehran on the Islamic republic’s nuclear ambitions. The move follows an alleged Israeli air strike near the Syrian capital Damascus last week that reportedly killed two commanders from the guards. The force had vowed to avenge the attack.
(via AFP)
Why is this interesting?
The Iranian strike was ostensibly focused on Israeli intelligence operations in Erbil, according to a statement from the revolutionary guard. They also landed very close to the US consulate. The actions communicated a few things clearly. First, to the US: “ignore us at your peril.” Second, when you unpack the strategic targets, they were meant to send a message to Baz Karim Barzinji, the region’s most prominent businessman, whose oil operations provide much of Kurdistan’s revenue. The Barzinji family is western leaning and its holdings export a lot of oil through a pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey via a joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft.
According to the Economist:
Some of the missiles hit a farm belonging to Baz Karim Barzinji…Another hit a television station owned by the Barzanis. Since Iraq’s election in October, the ruling Kurdish clan has infuriated Iran by working to exclude Iran’s political allies and their militias from government for the first time since Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. The Kurds have set up a Sunni bloc with Sunni Arabs as a counter to Iran’s hitherto dominant Shia protégés…Iran’s men in Baghdad have bitten back. Last month Iraq’s Supreme Court, whose judges are close to Iran, ruled that it is illegal for Kurdistan to export its oil independently of the government in Baghdad. “Iraq is a core Iranian asset. Iran is not going to let the Barzanis prise it away,” says an Iraqi oil analyst.
When you unpack the “farm” sentence above, it was actually Barzinji’s mansion, which was completely destroyed in the attack according to ABC news. No one was harmed.
All of this is set against the backdrop of the latest round of nuclear talks. The major sticking point? U.S. allies including Israel want the Iranian security force (Quds force) to remain on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Which is a WITI for another day. (CJN)
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Thanks for reading,
Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN)
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