The Houthi Drone Edition
On security, Yemen, and geopolitics
Colin here. You could be forgiven for missing it given the news maelstrom in the US right now, but last week, three people were killed in Abu Dhabi from a drone-and-missile attack, claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. On January 24th, another missile attack disrupted inbound flights to Abu Dhabi Airport.
The Houthis began targeting the UAE as reprisals for supporting the bombings in Yemen. According to NPR, “The UAE was a key member of the Saudi-led coalition that has waged war against the Houthis since 2015, trying to restore the internationally-backed government, ousted by the rebels the previous year.”
Though the UAE has pulled troops out while the Saudis remain engaged, it is clear that the attacks are targeting the tourism and safe harbor image the UAE has built and meticulously maintained over the past years.
Photo: Military times
Why is this interesting?
The recent attacks challenge the UAE’s reputation as a stable, safe, business hub. A lot of the world has been flocking into Dubai, as the city has remained open. The combination of favorable tax rates, competent handling of COVID, sun, and the EXPO 2021 has seen a surge in tourists, investors, and new residents to the country.
According to the Economist:
Houthi attacks have become common in Saudi Arabia, which shoots down missiles or drones almost every week. This was the first time the Houthis had successfully targeted the UAE. It reflects their fury at an abrupt battlefield reversal in Yemen, engineered by the Emiratis. And it presents the UAE with a difficult choice: to back off, allowing the Houthis to capture an important city, or to risk more attacks that could inflict real damage on its economy.
The question is: will the attacks lure the UAE back into Yemen, after having pulled out troops? Will the asynchronous guerilla attacks work? The Economist thinks the Houthis can force the hand further, “They have threatened strikes on Dubai, the UAE’s business and tourism hub; on January 25th a spokesman for the group warned visitors to avoid Expo 2020, the world’s fair that opened in October.”
The drone weapons systems are rudimentary, cannot carry big payloads, and can be repelled by the sophisticated air weapons defense systems in place in the country (and also maintained by the US’s military presence). The danger to the UAE is more about reputation: damaging the perception of the country, their tourism trade, as well as the economy. (CJN)
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Thanks for reading,
Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN)
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